Corn Market  Commentary  for 9-22-10

December corn moved higher throughout the overnight session, but sold off into the start of the day session and then again into late morning and early afternoon. This took the December contract below yesterday’s close prior to the close, but prices managed a small recovery into the close that left the market near unchanged on the day. Traders are looking for export sales to be up on tomorrow’s weekly report from the USDA from last week’s somewhat depressed levels. The past two reports have shown sales below the average needed each week to reach the USDA’s current export projection. Sales totals were well above that average in prior weeks when prices were lower. The USDA announced a sale of 120,000 tonnes of corn to Egypt this morning. This week’s production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed ethanol production for the week ending September 17th averaging 850,000 barrels per day, down 22,000 per day (-2.5%) from last week and up 125,000 (17.2%) from last year. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 89.25 million bushels. Corn usage for ethanol needs to average 90.091 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 4.7 billion bushels.

December Corn ended down 1/4  at 505, 7 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. March Corn closed up 1/4 at 518 1/4. This was 6 1/2 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low.

November Rice ended 0.075 higher at 12.215, 0.035 off the high and 0.005 up from the low .

Wheat Market  Review Report for 9-22-10

December wheat moved higher overnight and then generally moved lower during the day session and into early afternoon, taking out yesterday’s low in the process. However, prices remained near the mid point of the trading range of the past 5-6 weeks throughout the day. Traders said that a lower dollar and higher gold provided some support to futures early today with weakness in corn and prospects for higher acreage in soft red winter wheat helping to weigh on the market as planting season gets underway. Improved moisture levels in hard red winter wheat areas of the central Plains were also considered a somewhat negative factor. Egypt was a buyer of 220,000 tonnes of wheat today, all of it from the US. Egypt had been tendering for hard wheat from the Australia, Canada or US, and the fact that the entire sale went to the US was viewed as very favorable by the market. Jordan was also a buyer of 150,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat along with 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Germany. Officials said that this was to build up stocks amid fears of a further surge in food prices. In addition, Tunisia bought 50,000 tonnes of optional origin durum wheat. Traders said that lower dollar may have contributed to the US’ strong showing on the Egyptian tender.

December Wheat ended 1 3/4 higher at 719 3/4, 12 1/4 off the high and 6 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat ended  up 2 1/4 at 750 1/4. This was 11 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low.

December Oats finished 7 1/2 lower at 344. This was 11 3/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low.

9-22-10 – Soybean Complex Market Recap Report

November soybeans were the price leader over corn and wheat today, closing near the highs of the day in the process. This was a new high close for the move and the highest closing level in nearly 2 years. Meal and oil also posted moderate gains with a minimal change in the meal/oil spread on the day. News was on the light side with traders monitoring harvest progress in the US and dry conditions in the center west soybean growing region of Brazil where planting is already running late. However, heavy rains have started to fall in Brazil’s southern soybean states where planting starts later. The lower-than-normal rainfall has been blamed on the emergence of a La Nina effect in the Southern Pacific. Traders are also looking at a solid demand outlook ahead of the USDA’s weekly Export Sales report tomorrow morning along with a lower dollar and higher gold as potentially supportive factors. The USDA announced that China bought 226,000 tonnes of US soybeans.

November Soybeans finished up 8 1/2 at 1088 1/2, 4 1/4 off the high and 9 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 8 1/2 at 1098 1/2. This was 3 3/4 off the high and 9 up from the low.

December Soymeal closed 3 higher at 310.4. This was 3.6 up from the low and 1.4 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished up 0.44 at 43.26, 0.01 off the high and 0.4 up from the low.

After reading ï»¿today’s commentary,traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders  momentum.  The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders  reports.  Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it.  In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much.  Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices.  Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.

Andy Waldock circulates this blog.  Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, trader, analyst, broker and asset managerfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio.  As a result, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his customers, or his family in any commodity future market discussed. The blog is meant to develop a dialogue and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading  may not be advisable for all investors.  Investing in the commodity futures could result in substantial risk.  If you are interested in reading other published articles, commenting  on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.

The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day.  Market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, gold and silver are provided by CME Group.   The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.

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